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Prediction for CME (2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-23T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32987/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of the CME may be a filament and possible flare starting around 2024-08-23T01:00Z from AR13794 (N20W30) based on SDO/AIA 131 and 304. Dimming is also visible to the SW of the eruption location - best seen in SDO/AIA 211. | Arrival Signature: Interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2024-08-27T07:33Z, characterized by sudden increase in B-total from 3nT to 8nT, shortly thereafter rising to 11.8nT. Simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 250 km/s to 325 km/s, increase in temperature from 15,000 Kelvin to 87,000 Kelvin, and increase in density from 2 p/cc to 16 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-27T07:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-26T14:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32989/1
Model Inputs:
2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=31.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=461.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-08-23T09:38Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-26T14:22Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =20.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-25T12:19Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-26T08:30Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-28T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240823_093800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 86.87 hour(s)
Difference: 17.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2024-08-23T16:41Z

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